Guangzhou (JLC), February 28, 2024 – JLC successfully concluded its 2nd London Oil Seminar at Sheraton Grand London Park Lane on February 27, 2024, marking a long-awaited return since it first held the London session about five years ago.
With a focus on how the world and China’s oil sectors are adapting to new challenges while maintaining growth, the seminar shed light on the latest trends and developments in global crude and fuel markets and China's oil industries (including traditional fuels and biofuels), covering macroeconomics, energy policy, crude demand and imports, oil product demand and exports.
Tony Tang, Director of JLC International, kicked off the seminar by introducing JLC’s business scope and recent achievements.
With comprehensive, up-to-date and accurate data and high-quality digital solutions, JLC earned its reputation as a facilitator that empowers businesses and inspires growth.
Oil demand still grows amid faster industry upgrade
Victor Yang, Senior Analyst at JLC International, shared his insights through his presentation titled “China Oil Market Sees Faster Upgrade and More Challenges”, which threw spotlight on the latest trends in China’s crude and oil product demand and prospects.
China’s crude imports will grow much less in 2024, after a jump in 2023, Victor said.
Crude refining capacity will continue to expand, Victor said, with new capacity coming from large-scale integrated greenfield complexes and expansion and upgrade projects.
For refined oil products, Victor predicted that China’s apparent consumption for gasoline and jet fuel will inch up in 2024-2025, while that for diesel will be largely stable, despite various challenges including alternative fuels and new energy vehicles (NEVs).
Exports-wise, gasoline and diesel outflows are expected to shrink slightly in 2024, while jet fuel exports will likely extend growth this year, Victor noted.
Challenges and opportunities coexist for China’s biofuel industry
Xie Yu, Chief Editor at JLC International, delivered a speech titled “China’s Biodiesel Market in the Global Landscape”, which delved into the latest trends in China’s biofuels including biodiesel and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF).
The world continued to witness an uptrend in biodiesel production last year, with the E.U. and the U.S. collectively accounting for nearly 50% of the global production, although countries around the world implemented different industry policies or blending mandates, Yu said.
China, on the other hand, saw lower output and slower growth in biodiesel exports in 2023, partly due to investigations by organizations or industry watchdogs such as the E.U., International Sustainability and Carbon Certification (ISCC), and the European Biodiesel Board (EBB).
Nevertheless, China continued to boost biodiesel capacity, with operable capacity reaching 5.66 million mt/yr in 2023, among which, 37.10% was for the 2nd generation biodiesel, Yu said.
Noting that China is now embracing vast opportunities in SAF, Yu stressed that China will see tremendous growth in HVO/SAF capacity in 2024-2026, up from just 200,000 mt/yr for SAF as of the end of 2023.
Feedstock wise, used cooking oil (UCO) exports from China is expected to stay above 2 million mt/yr, Yu added.
East of Suez drives crude throughput growth
Wayne Tan, Lead Oil Markets Analyst at BloombergNEF, shared his views on global shipping and oil demand in 2024 amid ongoing geopolitical conflicts and global economic headwinds.
Global demand for refined oil products is likely to grow in 2024, Wayne said, with China’s demand for naphtha, LPG, gasoil, gasoline, kerosene and fuel oil continuing to rise across the board, albeit by a smaller margin compared with 2023.
Speaking of the trend of global crude oil processing, Wayne said that the global crude throughput growth (in 2024) will be focused on the East of Suez.
