Guangzhou (JLC), September 6, 2023 – The much-anticipated 10th JLC Oil Seminar in Singapore was successfully concluded at Conrad Centennial Singapore on September 5, with well-received presentations on the Chinese oil and biofuel markets after reopening.
Co-organized by Vortexa, the event attracted over 150 distinguished guests from international oil majors including Chevron, ExxonMobil, Saudi Aramco, Shell, BP, Petrobras, Statoil, Petronas and international trading giants such as Trafigura, Glencore and Mercuria.
Themed “China Oil Market after Reopening”, the seminar shed light on the latest developments of the Chinese oil market and prospects for the coming years, covering macroeconomics, crude demand and imports, oil product demand and exports and policies on the oil market.
Compared with the previous seminar, the 10th JLC Oil Seminar in Singapore came at a time when China’s economy and oil industry showed new characteristics and resilience amid economic headwinds.
Co-Chairman Huang Haixin kicked off the seminar with an opening speech. With a mission to make commodity trade more efficient, JLC has been providing professional services including market insights, data, consultancy, exhibitions, training, price assessments and digital platforms for nearly 20 years, Huang said. Since its founding, JLC has provided services to approximately 1.38 million users and customers worldwide, including well-known international oil, gas and chemical giants.
"Since our Singapore office was established in 2015, more international customers have chosen JLC as their service provider," said the Co-Chairman. "Through JLC, they have gained a better understanding of China. We will work hard to provide them with better services."
Stronger consumption of crude and refined products
Victor Yang, Senior Analyst at JLC International, shared his insights through his presentation titled “China Oil Market after Reopening”, which threw spotlight on the latest trends in China’s crude and oil product demand and prospects.
Regarding China's crude demand, China is set to see a big increase in 2023, Yang said. During January-July, the apparent crude oil consumption rose 9.33% on year to 15.41 million barrels per day (bpd), of which, crude imports surged 12.41% to 11.22 million bpd.
Meanwhile, China’s dependence on imported crude reached 72.64% in the first seven months of 2023, a year-on-year increase of 2.22 percentage points. It will continue to rise in 2024-2025 when domestic crude production is relatively small and stable, Yang said. For independent refiners, the imports of alternative feedstocks (fuel oil and diluted bitumen) will account for a larger share in their feedstock slates in 2023.
Oil products wise, domestic apparent consumption of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel is expected to gain 9.3%, 10.3% and 48.5% on year to 146 mln mt, 199 mln mt and 29 mln mt in 2023, respectively, Yang noted.
The aviation sector has seen the fastest growth so far in 2023, driving up jet fuel demand sharply. In contrast, slower-than-expected growth in infrastructure construction and industrial activities would put a cap on diesel demand growth, he said.
With another 12 mln mt of export quotas released, China will increase its exports of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel in the second half of the year, Yang noted.
Optimism in naphtha and biofuel markets
Xie Yu, Chief Editor at JLC International, delivered two speeches titled “Development of China’s Naphtha-related Industry Chain” and “Development of China’s Biomass Energy”, which delved on the latest trends in China’s naphtha and biofuel markets.
For naphtha, the overall availability (output + imports) is expected to grow 4.4% on year to 60.40 mln mt in 2023, driven by potentially higher consumption from ethylene crackers and reformers, which collectively account for over 90% of naphtha consumption in China, Xie pointed out. Furthermore, the monthly imports of naphtha have set several record highs since August 2022.
Domestic naphtha output is expected to rise in 2023-2025, as more crude processing capacity will come on stream and the downstream sector is also set to witness a sizable expansion during the three-year period, Xie noted.
Speaking of new opportunities in the biofuel industry, Xie specifically pointed out that China is likely to see a considerable growth in sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), as Air China has started using jet fuel blended with 10% of SAF on some of its commercial flights in 2023, after using the fuel on some cargo planes in 2015. In a more recent effort to boost the industry, the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) issued an official guideline on SAF sustainability in July 2023, adding to the upside of the SAF market, Xie said.
Emma Li, a senior analyst at Vortexa, also shared her views concerning the changes in China’s oil market amid growing uncertainties.
Highlights at APPEC
The 10th JLC Oil Seminar in Singapore coincided with the 39th Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference (APPEC) organized by S&P Global Commodity Insights. The three-day conference kicked off on September 4.
JLC participated as an exhibitor, showcasing a full array of products such as customized reports and market insights on crude oil, natural gas, refined oil products and chemicals.
As a leading provider of market data and pricing solutions, JLC also exchanged views with delegates from different oil and gas companies, traders and stakeholders.
In an interview with Platts Live, Co-Chairman Huang Haixin shared his insights with the audience on multiple topics, such as the future trends in global commodities and how to build a digital and intelligent ecological system for commodity services. His speech was well received by the delegates.
